5,530 new jobs forecast for District by 2035

Employment in Newry, Mourne and Down is forecast to increase by at least 5,530 jobs over the next decade, taking the district workforce to approximately 85,590 by 2035. The forecast is part of an Economic Outlook for Newry, Mourne and Down District Council compiled by Ulster University Economic Policy Centre. The figures were confirmed at a meeting of the Council’s Economy, Regeneration and Tourism Committee on 12 October.

The committee heard that the number of payroll employees in the district reached a high of 73,410 in July 2026, a 1.3% increase from the same month in 2025.

Newry, Mourne and Down District Council Chairperson Councillor Glyn Hanna said: “The UUEPC’s forecasts are encouraging and represent increasing confidence in our district, confirming the area remains a place to invest in and create jobs.

“The prospect of at least 5,530 additional jobs over the next decade demonstrates the resilience of our local economy and the strength of the diverse industries that underpin it. The Council remains committed to working with businesses, the education sector, investors and government partners to create the conditions for sustainable economic growth.”

The Outlook highlights the ongoing strength in Northern Ireland’s labour market, despite local and global challenges. UUEPC’s inhouse forecasting model produces two economic scenarios, baseline and upper, for the Northern Ireland economy covering a range of indicators. It forecasts job growth of 1.0% this year, with Northern Ireland reaching over one million jobs by 2032.

Under the baseline scenario, the district workforce is predicted to increase to around 85,590 by 2035. Under the upper scenario, the figure rises to 88,150 people in work in Newry, Mourne and Down over the same period. Both scenarios suggest sustained employment growth over the next decade, with district employment reaching a new height under either and outpacing the Northern Ireland average.

Jobs within the district remain concentrated in wholesale and retail, health and social work and manufacturing. Over the 10-year forecast period, the construction, hospitality and manufacturing sectors are expected to be the major contributors to the baseline growth of 5,530 jobs, accounting for 45% of total growth. The sectoral composition of the growth reflects the district’s broad employment base, with future job growth increasingly driven by construction and service-based sectors.

Under the baseline scenario, 1,180 additional jobs are expected to be created in the construction industry, with an estimated 1,620 jobs under the upper scenario. Hospitality is projected to expand, indicating the growing demand for labour market skills compatible with the service sector. Health and social care is forecast to add 610 jobs over the next decade under a baseline scenario, reflecting the demographic pressures and ongoing demand in this particular sector.

Job vacancy levels remain comparatively low, with 13.8 vacancies per 1,000 residents in Newry, Mourne and Down in 2025/26, compared with 20.9 in Northern Ireland as a whole.

Over the next decade, Real Gross Added Value (GVA), the measure of the value of goods produced in an area, industry or economy sector, is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2%. It is expected to reach approximately £4.8 billion in the district by 2035.

Moving forward, Newry, Mourne and Down is forecast to have positive employment prospects and an improving business environment. Rising productivity and supporting the growth and survival of businesses are viewed as important to translate this dynamism into a higher value economy.

Cllr Hanna concluded: “By supporting innovation, improving productivity, developing skills and helping businesses thrive, we can ensure this economic forecast growth translates into high-quality employment opportunities and a stronger, more prosperous economy for everyone in Newry, Mourne and Down.”

Details of the initiatives for 26/27 are available at www.newrymournedown.org